This year’s PNG 100 CEO Survey reveals a positive shift in sentiment among Papua New Guinea business leaders, although longstanding impediments remain. Justin Smirk, Westpac Senior Economist, provides his analysis of this year’s survey results.

Westpac’s Justin Smirk providing analysis of the 2025 PNG 100 CEO Survey to members of the Port Moresby Chamber of Commerce and Industry on 19 March, 2025. Credit: BAI

Last year’s PNG 100 CEO Survey found declining business expectations and rising concerns about business impediments. This year’s survey has revealed a positive shift: 2024 profits exceeded expectations and the outlook for 2025 has improved.

From the 2025 survey, we have identified five key highlights:

1. PNG business confidence is better than average in 2025.

We took the average level of concern for each business impediment to create an overall Business Confidence Index, where 50 is the average level of confidence in the history of the survey.

In 2025, Business Confidence lifted above 50. This came after it dipped below 50 in 2024, the first time this had occurred since 2016.

Even during the coronavirus pandemic, Business Confidence managed to stay well above 50, highlighting how significant the delay to major resources projects, as well as the unfolding social unrest, had been for business conditions in the 2024 survey.

2. Access to forex remains the most critical concern.

This year, 67 per cent of CEOs report forex as a critical impediment, an improvement on the 73 per cent who thought so in 2024, but still the second highest level of concern about forex in the survey’s history.

Concerns about forex have been rising since 2019, following the kina being fixed from mid-2020 to early 2023. Since 2023, the gradual depreciation of the kina has improved the availability of forex, resulting in a fall in the level of concern in this year’s survey.

Despite this improvement, forex remains far and away the number one impediment for CEOs. As such, a further easing will go a long way towards lifting not just business confidence, but also economic activity.

3. Utilities are now of equal concern as security.

Security/law and order was the second-most critical concern in 2024 (55 per cent) and 2025 (46 per cent), but it is worth noting the improvement in this year’s survey.

Contrast that with utilities, where 41 per cent reported it as critical in 2024 and 46 per cent as critical in 2025, bringing it on par with security/law and order.

Since 2016, there has been a rising trend in concerns about the reliability of utilities, suggesting that if this issue is not addressed soon, it has the potential to be the most significant factor holding back PNG businesses.

4. Profits outperformed expectations in 2024 and are expected to improve in 2025.

In 2024, profit expectations were positive – but lower than in 2023 and the historical average. Ultimately, 2024 profits exceeded expectations and surpassed the long-run average.

Looking ahead, profit expectations for 2025 are stronger than they were in 2024, suggesting that CEOs anticipate a solid increase in profits this year that are more consistent with the longer-run average.

While last year’s survey showed a dip in profit expectation to below average, investment and recruitment expectations held above average. Therefore, with profits exceeding expectations in 2024, we are not surprised to also see a further improvement in investment and recruitment expectations in 2025.

5. Lift in business expectations points to a stronger year for economic growth.

Westpac combines profits, investment and recruitment expectations into the Business Expectations Index, where 50 is equal to the long-run average in expectations.

In 2025, the Business Expectations Index lifted from 52.4 to 55.6. When combined with the improvement in the Business Confidence Index in the 2025 Survey, it appears that PNG CEOs agree with Westpac’s expectation for economic growth to improve in 2025. Our current forecast is for GDP to lift by 5.1 per cent in 2025, compared to growth of 3.7 per cent in 2023.

The 2025 PNG 100 CEO Survey was conducted by Business Advantage International between November 2024 and January 2025. The survey included senior executives from a representative sample of PNG’s largest companies, across all sectors of the economy.

To download a copy of the survey results and analysis, along with the results of each survey since 2012, click here.