There are many challenges facing Papua New Guinea but which are the most critical to address first? In the first of a two-part series, Jenny Hayward-Jones outlines seven key issues that confront the nation’s emerging leaders. In the second part, she identifies which areas to target first. Trying to solve all of them at the same time, she believes, will not deliver the progress Papua New Guineans expect.

1. Governance

Inadequate skills and weak capacity in the public service are the most critical inhibitors to development in PNG. The World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) show little overall improvement in governance in Papua New Guinea in the period between 1998 and 2014.

Jenny Hayward-Jones

A key feature of weak governance in PNG is corruption. Transparency International’s 2015 Corruption Perceptions Index ranks Papua New Guinea 139th in a list of 163.

In the Asia-Pacific, where Papua New Guinea seeks to do more business, only four countries score lower in Transparency International’s Index: Myanmar, Cambodia, Afghanistan, and North Korea, all of which have experienced either civil war or long-term dictatorships.

There are no quick fixes, or indeed straightforward long-term fixes to improving governance and building capacity in the public service in Papua New Guinea.

2. Law and Order

Law and order challenges in Papua New Guinea are intractable. Levels of crime and violence are high and are a major obstacle to economic development.

‘Despite increased levels of health spending by the PNG Government, improved health outcomes have been incremental at best.’

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A 2014 World Bank report found that crime was increasing in a number of “hot spots” in Papua New Guinea, including: Lae, Port Moresby, Madang, East New Britain, West New Britain, Western Highlands, and Enga.

Violent crime was growing as a proportion of crimes reported between 2007 and 2010. Property crimes were also increasing in urban areas. The spread of firearms in the country has created further problems with violence.

3. Health

Papua New Guinea has major health challenges, although there has been some improvement in some health indicators in recent years. World Health Organisation (WHO) statistics show that some of PNG’s health outcomes have improved. The overall incidence of malaria declined between 2008 and 2013 and there has been a slow decline in under-five child mortality and infant mortality.

‘It is not only primary and secondary schools that need reform.’

Still, despite increased levels of health spending by the PNG Government, improved health outcomes have been incremental at best, and non-existent at worst.

4. Education

The average number of years of schooling achieved by adults in Papua New Guinea is four. This is the lowest level in the Pacific Islands region and is comparable to the levels of schooling attained by adults in sub-Saharan Africa.

Teachers and administrators need stability and support to deliver better education to the growing number of children attending school.

It is not only primary and secondary schools that need reform in order to deliver higher-quality education. Of the 23,000 students who completed Grade 12 in 2015, only 4700 (around 20 per cent) are continuing with higher education in 2016. Even this number is saturating the capacity of PNG’s universities and vocational training institutions.

5. Over-reliance on extractives industry

Papua New Guinea is blessed with a vast endowment of natural resources and a geographic proximity to rapidly growing Asian markets for those resources. But as many developing countries have found, such blessings can also be a curse. Although PNG policymakers are aware of the ‘resources curse’, they have been unable to avoid suffering from it.

The socio-economic impact of PNG’s extractives sector has been uneven at best. The resources sector will continue to offer opportunities to skilled university graduates but the majority of these jobs are largely dependent on favourable world prices and are limited in number.

6. Potential of subsistence agriculture

Papua New Guinea relies on subsistence agriculture to feed approximately 80 per cent of its population. The rural population’s ability to feed themselves from crops they grow means the country largely avoids the severe hunger problems that afflict much of the developing world.

A diet based on subsistence agriculture has also helped Papua New Guineans avoid the growth of diet-related non-communicable diseases such as obesity and Type 2 diabetes, which have afflicted neighbouring Polynesian and Micronesian states.

Urbanisation presents a complex set of challenges for Papua New Guinea.

While the government has focused on enabling opportunities for the extractives industry, it has ignored the very substantial job creation and economic returns that could come from investment in commercialising subsistence agriculture.

7. Population

The population of Papua New Guinea was recorded at 7.3 million in the 2011 census, a 40 per cent increase since the previous census in 2001 and a 160 per cent increase on the estimated population of 2.8 million at the time of Independence.

Urbanisation presents a complex set of challenges for Papua New Guinea. It offers an opportunity to drive GDP growth and improve human development but it also increases the burden on service providers in urban areas.

Jenny Hayward-Jones is the former Director of the Melanesia Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney, Australia. This is an excerpt from her paper, The Future of Papua New Guinea: old challenges for new leaders.

A second extract, in which she focuses on which issues PNG should prioritise, can be found here.